“What is Russia doing in Georgia”?
Reading the news reports we should all be clear that: 1) Russia is doing something “unlawful” by invading a sovereign country; 2) Russia is trying to control Europe through energy; 3) Russia is starting a new “cold war”; 4) Its all based on “ancient, ethnic rivalries,” aka, these people haven’t like each other in a long, long time. At least, that’s what all the papers are saying.
The Background: Ossetians claim to be a distinct nataionality, pushed by the Mongols from their original homelands in the middle ages and settling in the Caucasus, safe and out of the way. They were conquered by the Russian Empire in the early 1800s and – like Chechnya – continued intermittent uprising against their conquerers. Stalin broke them in two (as he did with many ethnic minorities for easier control), putting half in the Russian SSR and half in the Georgian SSR. After the breakup of the USSR in 1992 each half followed it’s larger government entity into Russia and Georgia. Russia guaranteed that all citizens of the former USSR could have Russian passports and citizenship. Ninety percent of South Ossetians have taken Russian citizneship, though they are formally “Georgians.” There are only a couple hundred thousand Ossetians.
There are a lot more details about the background of Ossietia, Georgia, and Russia, but it really doesnt matter in the current conflict. The Christian Science Monitor has a lot of good information this past week, especially Tues. Aug 12. Georgians and Ossetians massacred each other in the early 20th century. The legalities of a homeland are buried in Stalin’s convoluted and conflicting promises which were used as bribes to get what he wanted at the moment.
Bottom line: Ossetians think they would be better off as Russians than as Georgians and – even better – they think they should have their own country. In a 2006 referendum South Ossetians voted “overwhelmingly” for independence. Georgia predictably said the vote was illegal. Last week when Georgia sent in troops to put down Ossetians rebels/freedom-fighters, Russia responded as regional peacekeeper to push the Georgians back. And teach them a lesson, that they are not in control over this disputed territory. Georgia cried foul and looked for backup.
The West continues to see this as a continuation of the cold war, and lines up all the players accordingly. Russia is against Georgia, which is seen as part of “the west” as a potential candidate for the E.U., NATO, and who knows what else. Russia sees this an an opportunity to apply “international rules” in its favor, for a change.
In February of this year, Kosovo declared its independence from Serbia with the support of the United Nations and a united west. Russia is now setting up a similar scenario in South Ossetia. If Kosovo can declare its indpendence, why not Ossetia? Why not Abkhazia? The rule of law plays both ways, doesn’t it?
There are reasons that Russian wants control in the Caucasus, to ensure its role in supplying energy and thus protecting its own interests. But the real reasons are more visceral.
Russia is pissed: Russia has considered itself a part of Europe for hundreds of years. Russian nobles spoke French as their first language, not Russian. In the 1990s they repudiated their government of 70 years, got on board with democracy and capitalism, and yet Europe and the United States will not let them join the club as full members. Why not? Not clear.
Bush said he went eye-to-eye with Putin and took the measure of the man. Apparently Putin did the same, and we are now seeing the results.
Here are the predictions: 1) Russia will continue to maintain troops in the area until their is a treaty that includes the rights of South Ossetian to self-determination, same as Kosovo. 2) North and South Ossetia will be joined in an “autonomous region” of Russian. 3) Same will happen with Abkhazia. 4) If the West complains, Russian will point to Kosovo as the example. And Iraq. And Afghanistan. And U.S. support of Taiwan in a “security zone.”
The real question is why the Bush Administration does not trust Russia, why they want to continue the cold war. It makes as much sense, at this point, as the war in Iraq. (So depending on you values and beliefs it makes perfect sense or no sense, but it is consistent.) To paraphrase from the ideas of Alex Wendt, why are 5 nuclear weapons in hands of North Korea a crisis, while 500 nuclear weapons in the U.K are not a problem? Its not just the weapons that are a problem, it is also the relationship.
Now is the time for the United States to build a solid, friendship relationship with Russia (and Iran, but that’s another story). Ask for advice and suggestions, take to heart their concerns over a missile system in Eastern Europe, work together on projects that benefit both. It will take time to get to a point that we trust each other like in-laws, eve if we do not always agree (think of the French).
Russia is using this situation to make a point. We can only hope that the Bush administration and the west will understand the point and work for partnership, and NOT continue to apply the old, out-dated paradigm of cold war enemies.
UPDATE: Aug 25, 2008
The Russian Parliament has voted to recognized the independence of South Ossetia and Abkhazia, as reported in various news feeds (here is one of them: http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=a0KvDhECBbqE&refer=home)
The example of Kosovo is, of course, being used as a legal precedent for independence.
There have been several editorials presenting the Russian view of the conflict (here is one in the Washington Post:
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/08/11/AR2008081101372.html) , and Gorbachev appeared on Larry King live to make his point (http://www.cnn.com/2008/WORLD/europe/08/14/gorbachev/)
So what’s “the truth” ?
Basically, the Ossetians/Abkhazians and the Georgians dont like each other, and dont trust each other.
Who started it? Who knows. They can trace this conflict back more than 100 years.
What is the solution? First of all this is NOT a conflict between the United States and Russia. Second, it is NOT a conflict over democracy, values, beliefs, etc. It is a conflict over power: who makes the decisions that will deeply affect the every day lives of the peoples living in South Ossetia and Abkhazia.Third, there are also larger questions of territorial control, energy pipelines, security and economy of Georgia (which is heavily dependent on Russian whether it likes it or not), and the on-going relationship between Georgia and Russia.
Gerogian President Saakashvili is doing his best to pull the United States and the West into this conflict/argument/discussion, because on his own he has little if any power, and no chance to come out of this power struggle a winner.
The United States needs to clearly identify the U.S. interests in these two small pieces of real estate to determine our level of involvement. The large goal should be peace in the region, and if independence as a Russian protectorate can do that, how does that hurt U.S. interests.
More powerfully, this could also THE oppportunity for the United States to show that we hold the principles of democracy and self-determination as more value than international politics. Such a move could recast our relationships (for the better) with many nations around the world.
Dont hold your breath.
